Effects of Enhanced CO2 on Tropical Forest Growth

Effects of Enhanced CO2 on Tropical Forest Growth James P. Smith Effects of enhanced atmospheric CO2 concentrations on tropical forest growth: experimental studies and interactions with nutrients, light, water and temperature Abstract (150 words) Introduction (300 words) Approximately 90% of earth’s 652Gt terrestrial biomass carbon is locked up in forests. Tropical and subtropical forests store 340Gt carbon; or ~52%; but only make up 13% of total forested area (table 1). Achard et al (2002) estimated 1Gt/yr carbon losses, through activities such as deforestation and clearance for agriculture (Geist et al, 2002). All terrestrial plants have become exposed to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, as part of global change. This has changed from 180ppm 18ka (Petit et al, 1999) to 390ppm today, by degassing from oceans and fossil C burning (Crowley et al, 2001). Increased CO2 could stimulate photosynthesis, raising plant productivity. This can have a role in storing more carbon and mitigate the atmospheric rise in CO2 concentrations (Beedlow et al, 2004). Table 1: Areal extent, carbon storage and net primary productivity of earth’s major biomes (from Roy et al, 2001). Figure 1 demonstrates CO2 enters plants at the source (leaf); where it becomes photoassimilated to produce carbon sugars; which are transported around the plant to carbon sinks; for different processes such as structural growth, metabolism and export. Sugars can also be stored as reserves in the form of NSCs (non-structural carbohydrates). CO2 is lost through respiration, herbivory and litter production and decomposition (Korner, 2003a). Figure 1: CO2 pools and fluxes in plants, as well as source-sink interactions (modified from Korner, 2003a). The aim of the review is to evaluate research on the effects of enhanced CO2 on tropical forest growth. This will be achieved by looking at experimental studies, as well as the effects of enhanced CO2 on the limiting factors of nutrients, light, water supply and temperature. I will be reviewing literature from 1999-2013. Experimental studies There have been few experimental studies of the effects of enhanced CO2 on plant growth in tropical forests in relatively natural conditions (ambient climate, natural soil and inter and intra-species competition). Two studies using a canopy crane in a tropical dry forest in Panama was used to assess the effects of enhanced CO2 on canopy tree leaves. Over a 40 week period Lovelock et al (1999) measured responses of leaf and branchlets of a single tree species. Photosynthesis rates increased 30% with enhanced CO2. However, no increases in biomass occurred (reproductive organs and foliage). Branchlet TNC (total non-structural carbohydrates) increased 20%, inferring localized carbon saturation. Wurth et al (1998a) found stronger TNC increases (41-61%), upon exposing canopy leaves of four tree species to enhanced CO2, in situ. Wurth et al (1998b) planted seedlings of five local species (tree, shrubs and grass) in the understorey of a closed Panamanian forest. These were grown over a 15 mo nth period, in which 50% were in ambient CO2 and 50% in elevated. All species showed significant seedling growth under elevated CO2, but decreased as understorey light levels increased, and inter-species variation was apparent. Again TNC levels increased under enhanced CO2. One experiment has studied communities of tropical trees, which have been outplanted in natural soil and subjected to elevated CO2. Lovelock et al (1998) grew groups of ten tree species at ambient and elevated CO2 in open-top chambers at the forest margin in Panama. Over six months, there was no enhancement in biomass accumulation. There were also reductions in leaf area index, increased photosynthesis rates and increased nitrogen: carbon ratios. Response was species-specific, but late-successional species were less sensitive than pioneer and midsuccessional species. Table 2: Comparison of mean TNC concentrations (% dry weight) across four studies under ambient and elevated CO2 concentrations. From table 2, it is clear that all four studies mentioned showed increased mean TNC concentrations when exposed to elevated CO2. Despite the increases, this does not necessarily mean TNCs from carbon sources are being transported to carbon sinks, into plant biomass for growth. They include carbohydrates, sugar alcohols, organic acids and lipids, and represents carbon reserves or stores, for future use on demand (Korner, 2003a). So, photosynthesis rates may increase under elevated CO2, producing more TNCs, but may not be used in plant growth, unless needed. Figure 2: Variation in mean concentration of TNC with height in two wet and dry seasons (from Wurth et al, 1998a). Wurth et al (1998a) also compared TNC concentrations, exposed to elevated CO2, with height from canopy height to roots, between wet and dry seasons (figure 2). They found TNC to increase in all plant compartments during the dry season. The TNC again not incorporated into structural growth, because growth was directly limited by dry conditions, and not photosynthesis. More TNC was being stored in reserves. In the wet season, TNC pools reduced, coinciding with resumed tree growth and new leaf production. They inferred TNC concentrations were controlled by moisture availability, in agreement with another study in the area (Newell et al, 2002). On the other hand, Korner and Wurth (1996) found TNC to increase significantly in both dry and wet seasons. This infers plants have a store of carbon, and can mobilize it when needed for growth. To further the understanding of increasing CO2 on tropical forest growth, more and longer-term experiments are needed. Arnone (1996) and Korner (1998) criticize these experiments, as they cannot be scaled up to actual forest size; use only small plants; have a higher than normal nutrient supply; absence of competition; and key processes; such as herbivory and effects of pathogens. CO2-nutrient interactions Nitrogen is commonly seen as the main limiting nutrient of tree CO2 responses (Finzi et al, 2006). However, although this is theoretically an unlimited resource (atmospheric), provided N fixation balances N losses through processes such as N20 losses or leaching (Korner, 2009). Litter mineralization is the predominate source of N in forests. All other nutrients are in limited supply in a given area, with older, more weathered (humid tropics) soils making these nutrients much more limiting to plant growth (Bergametti et al, 1998). Enhanced CO2 can accelerate the rate of symbiotic N fixation, as demonstrated by Tissue et al (1997). Seeds of fast-growing woody legumes from a seasonal tropical forest in Costa Rica were inoculated with N2 fixing Rhizobium bacteria and grown in greenhouses for ~70 days, exposed to ambient (35Pa) and elevated (70Pa) CO2 levels. Seedlings were watered adequately with N-free water solution. Under elevated CO2, photosynthesis rates increased by 49%, compared to those exposed to ambient CO2. As a result growth in elevated CO2 increased 36%. Figure 3 illustrates this, with total plant biomass growing 84% under elevated CO2. Greater rates of photosynthesis mean greater quantities of carbon are transported to the nodules. More carbon supplied to nodules means specific nitrogenase activity (SNA); that is N-fixing enzyme activity; is increased; more energy is available to power the fixation process. Thus a greater proportion of nitrogen is fixed by the legumes and incorporated into the plant for biomass accumulation and growth. Figure 4 shows this clearly, with increases in N content across all parts of the plant. Figures 3 4: Dry weight biomass (gDW) of whole plant, as well as different areas of the plant (left). N content (mg) of whole plant, and different sections of plant (right). (From Tissue et al, 1997). Although there is a high abundance of nitrogen, and fixing increases under CO2 levels, Pons et al (2007) inferred N-fixation is also strongly limited by phosphorus availability, and is absorbed by trees much more efficiently than N (Medina and Cuevas, 1994; Herbert and Fownes, 1995). Pons et al (2007) measured N and P concentration changes in leaves of leguminous plants, in different soil types, in a tropical forest in Guyana. From table 3, general increases in N and P led to positive accumulations of N in leaves. They inferred increases in phosphorus were the main cause for increasing N-fixation, with increasing N concentrations having negligible effect. Contrary to Tissue et al (1997)’s findings, Houlton et al (2008) found N fixation to be less prominent in tropical forests. Pons et al (2007) approximated 6% of total N uptake by trees in Guyana was by N-fixation, and only ~50% legumes used the symbiotic pathway. Nardoto et al (2008) found near negligible N-fixation levels in legumes in Amazonia. Thus, nitrogen is unlikely to majorly constrain C-fixation in tropical forests, but phosphorus is more likely to (Martinelli et al, 1999). Table 3: Phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations in five different soil types, and their affect on N-fixation rates by N contents in leaves (Modified from Pons et al, 2007). Studies in tropical forests in Panama provided clear evidence that trees grown in close proximity to their natural habitat, under elevated CO2, within original soils and under local climatic conditions, exhibited accelerated growth rates when soils were enriched with mineral nutrients (Winter and Lovelock, 1999; Winter et al, 2001; table 4). In the absence of fertilizer there was no significant change in growth rate under elevated CO2 (Lovelock et al, 1998; Winter et al, 2000). No major changes in growth rates were found again were found by Korner and Arnone (1992) and Arnone and Korner (1995). Table 4: The effect of fertilizer/absence of fertilizer application on biomass accumulation for tropical plants under elevated CO2. Clearly the effects of elevated CO2 on have caused mixed responses from different studies. In some studies, greater photosynthesis rates led to increased carbon supply to allow accelerated N-fixation for biomass growth. Other studies highlighted the greater importance of phosphorus in regulating N-fixation and biomass accumulation. Plants grown in the absence of nutrients consistently showed minimal to no change in growth rates, opposed to increasing biomass with those that were enriched with mineral nutrients. CO2-light interactions It is known that shaded plant growth rates are limited by light and CO2. Illuminating plants will lead to accelerated growth, by forest canopy thinning or removal. As enhanced CO2 increases light use efficiency and decreases the light compensation point within the leaf, stimulation by enhanced CO2 in shaded areas can be seen to be similar to canopy thinning or illumination (Long and Drake, 1991). The effect of elevated CO2 on tropical plants grown in deep shade can be significant and can possibly exceed effects grown under horticultural conditions under full light (Korner, 2009). Wurth (1998a) exposed seedlings on the forest floor to ~700ppm CO2 under extremely low light levels (~11ÃŽ ¼mol photons m-2s-1). Tree seedlings grew 25-44% and shrub seedlings grew 59-76%. Lovelock et al (1996) observed similar results of mycorrhizal growth of tree seedlings, although P supply may have had an influence. Thus elevated CO2 promotes expansion into shaded areas. As expressed, as most tree seedlings wait to exploit an opening in the canopy, lianas employ a different strategy. Lianas are situated in deep shade and aim to occupy maximal space, but with minimal structural investment (Korner, 2009). Elevated CO2 increases the probability of lianas reaching the upper canopy. Granados and Korner (2002) studied biomass and growth rates for three liana species; simulated in a tropical understorey environment with seed and soil from Yucatan; under high and low light levels; and under ambient and elevated CO2 levels. From figures 5-7 it is apparent that liana biomass increases at higher light levels for all three species. However, liana growth rate is much larger at lower light levels (up to +249%), opposed to higher light levels (up to +52%). These higher growth rates are at moderately elevated CO2 levels of ~420ppm. At ~700ppm, growth rates reduced or even reversed. Thus, individuals within the understorey with low light levels (under moderately elevated CO2 levels) have the potential to grow upwards towards the canopy at a faster rate than those in higher light levels. Figure 8: Comparison of biomass change and growth rates; under ambient and elevated CO2 concentrations; between temperate and tropical liana species (from Korner, 2009) This consistent trend in increased growth rates under low light levels has also been confirmed for temperate liana species (figure 8). Hattenschweiler and Korner (2003) found growth rates between 64-80% under low light opposed to 23-40% under high light. These results could support reasoning for the enhanced vigour and reproduction of lianas observed in recent decades in Panama (Wright et al, 2004) and Amazonia (Phillips et al, 2002). Elevated CO2 may cause lianas to behave more aggressively, thereby inducing faster forest turnover, and reducing tree carbon storage in the long-run (Korner, 2004). Other factors have also been attributed to explain current liana growth, such as reduced rainfall (Swaine and Grace, 2007). Epiphytes are another important organism that influence tropical forest tree dynamics, and grow in tree crowns. Epiphytes derive from succulents, and may utilize CAM (Crassulacean acid metabolism) photosynthetic pathways, although some can use C3 pathways also (Korner, 2009). Contrary to lianas, evidence suggests epiphytes don’t benefit from elevated CO2 (Monterio et al, 2009). They tested the effect of doubling CO2 concentration; as well as increasing light and nutrient levels; on growth of six epiphyte species from the Neotropics. Figure 9: Relative growth rate (mgg-1d-1) of six epiphyte species under increasing CO2, light and nutrient levels for six different species. C3 pathways (V=Vriesea; C=Catopsis; O=Oncidium). CAM pathways (T=Tillandsia; B=Bulbophyllum; A=Aechmea). From Monteiro et al (2009). From figure 9; across the six species; elevated CO2 increased relative growth rates by only 6%. Although C3 species grew 60% faster than CAM, the two groups showed no significant difference in their CO2 responses. High light increased average growth rates by 21%; high nutrients by 10%. The findings contrast with those noted by Granados and Korner (2002) and Wurth et al (1998a), who found significant positive responses of lianas to elevated CO2 and deep shade, opposed to high light intensities. Thus, epiphytes will pose a lower risk to forest turnover and carbon stock losses. CO2-water interactions CO2-water interactions have two sides: the CO2-driven stomatal response; and the interactions with weather; such as drought. Under elevated CO2 conditions, plants will always absorb more CO2 per unit of water lost; regardless of stomata respond. However, experimental evidence confirms stomata may not be as sensitive to CO2 as previously thought (Korner and Wurth, 1996; Lovelock et al, 1999). The increase in atmospheric CO2 over the last century has highlighted the dynamic relationships between CO2 gain and water loss. The evidence for this is within tree rings, in the form of stable carbon isotope signals. Hietz et al (2005) observed these changes in Amazonian trees, where a change in ∂3C over the past two centuries infers increased intrinsic water use efficiency. Traditionally, when water acts as a limiting factor, scientists have drawn upon an array of responses; such as stomatal closure; reduced photosynthesis and growth. However, it has been understood for decades that photosynthesis is less sensitive to reduced water potential than biomass growth. Most of the evidence is derived from non-woody plants (Korner, 2003a). Less water uptake reduces turgidity, which reduces tissue formation, eventually limiting CO2 uptake. Wurth et al (2005) completed an extensive inventory for 17 tropical tree species in both the dry and wet seasons in Panama. They found NSC pools to be largest when growth was lowest and smallest when growth reaches a maximum. This is counterintuitive to what is normally expected! It had been suggested that high NSC levels found in trees under growth limitations by environmental factors, such as drought, does not reflect source saturation by C, but a precaution strategy by which NSCs are stored in a reserve (Lewis et al, 2004a).

God’s Hands Behind Boxing Gloves Essay

It was after the 1960 Rome Olympics. A well-built man stood by a river and threw a gold medal into the waters. He had been rejected entrance in an all-white gathering, he who had brought pride to his nation.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   The man was Muhammad Ali. He showed that no amount of worldwide recognition can be balm enough to the injustices and racism that was so prevalent during his time. The recognition that he earned at the Olympics was not ticket to equality, and he realized this instantly. He cared not for the medal, but the respect that his art and skill bring to the man, not the personality that the public knows. Muhammad Ali was not afraid to be seen with the much celebrated and controversial Malcolm X, and he fought his battles with as much confidence and gusto as he did within the ring and off it.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Dubbed as the â€Å"Athlete of the Century†, Muhammad Ali is known all over the world as one of the greatest boxers of all time. Indeed, with all bravado he dared call himself the Greatest. And he was, in many aspects not confined in the boxing ring.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Born as Cassius Clay Jr., he left behind his â€Å"slave name† and took up the name Muhammad Ali to assert his individuality and faith. His action has spurred black pride, as the man continued to prove to be more than just a boxer, but more importantly a black who is not afraid to succeed and fight for his rights. He refused to be inducted in the US Army as a stance against the war. He was imprisoned and stripped off his boxing title for his refusal, but he trained even behind bars and came back to recapture the championship and the people’s hearts. He staged his fights in developing countries that signaled a shift from first-world supremacy to an awareness of the existence of cities such as Manila and Kuala Lumpur. Muhammad Ali has visited and reached out to Afghanistan, North Korea, Cuba, Iraq and South Africa, going where there is strife and bringing goodwill.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Even after his popularity as a professional boxer has waned, his heart of gold shone brightly as ever. He promoted understanding at a time when there was discord in the streets, he embraced difference and stood his ground and pushed with his quiet way of battling racism – not through force but through tolerance. It was through not harboring hate that he gained peace of mind and freedom. He was a living example to all the blacks who wanted to be free. He has touched the lives, minds, and spirits of peoples from all over the world, from impoverished countries, to ghettoes, to aspiring boxers. He continues to make a difference in the lives of those around him, contributing to research centers and humanitarian works, gracing Make-A-Wish-Foundation and soup kitchens. Even if his claim to fame have been his powerful fists, more lasting was the kindness that his hands have shared to countless people. Muhammad Ali was known for wit, charm, and cocky, especially his famous proclamation, â€Å"I am the greatest†.   And the world agrees.

When To Use Accents and Diacritical Marks in Spanish

The most immediately obvious difference between written Spanish and written English is Spanishs use of written accents, and occasionally of diereses (also known as umlauts). Both of these features are known as diacritical marks. Beginning Spanish students usually learn right away that the main use of the accent is to help with pronunciation, and specifically in telling the speaker which syllable of a word should be stressed. However, accents also have other uses, such as distinguishing between certain homonyms, parts of speech, and indicating a question. The only use of the dieresis is to assist in pronunciation. Here are the basic rules for using the written accent and the dieresis: Stress The rules for determining which syllable should be stressed are quite simple in Spanish. Accents are used to indicate exceptions to the rules. Here are the basic rules: If a word ends in a vowel, the letter s, or the letter n, the stress is on the next to last syllable.In other words without an accent, the stress is on the last syllable. Simply put, if the stress is on a syllable other than that indicated above, an accent is used to indicate where the stress is placed. Following are a few examples, with the approximate pronunciation in phonetic English. Note that a vowel may either gain or lose an accent when a word is put into plural or singular form. See the rules on pluralization for other examples. examen (egg-SAH-men)exà ¡menes (eggs-SAH-men-ess)muà ±Ãƒ ³n (moon-YOHN)muà ±ones (moon-YOHN-ness)cancià ³n (kahn-SEEOHN)canciones (kahn-SEEOHN-ess) Distinguishing Homonyms Homonym pairs are separate words that have different meanings even though they sound alike. Here are some of the most common ones: de, of, from; dà © first- and third-person singular subjunctive form of dar, to give)el, the; à ©l, hemas, but; mà ¡s, moremi, my; mà ­, me;se, a reflexive and indirect object pronoun used in various ways; sà ©, I knowsi, if; sà ­, yessolo, only (adjective), single, alone; sà ³lo, only (adverb), solelyte, you (as an object); tà ©, teatu, your; tà º, you Demonstrative Pronouns Although the spelling reform of 2010 means they arent strictly necessary except to avoid confusion, accents also are traditionally used in Spanish on demonstrative pronouns to distinguish them from demonstrative adjectives. Talk about demonstrative parts of speech might sound like a mouthful, so its probably best to remember that in English were simply talking about the words this, that, these and those. In English, those words can be either adjectives or pronouns. In I like this book, this is an adjective; in I like this, this is a pronoun, since it stands for a noun. Here are the same sentences in Spanish: Me gusta este libro, I like this book. Me gusta à ©ste, translated as either I like this or I like this one. Note that when used as a pronoun, à ©ste traditionally has a written accent. In Spanish the demonstrative pronouns in the singular masculine form are à ©ste, à ©se, and aquà ©l, and the corresponding adjectives are este, ese, and aquel. Although distinguishing the meanings of these pronouns goes beyond the scope of this lesson, suffice it to say here that este/à ©ste corresponds roughly to this, while both ese/à ©se and aquel/aquà ©l can be translated as that. Items with which aquel/aquà ©l are used are farther from the speaker. Quiero aquel libro could be translated as I want the book thats over there. The following chart shows the various forms of the demonstrative pronouns (with the traditional accents) and adjectives, including the feminine and plural forms: Quiero este libro, I want this book. Quiero à ©ste, I want this one. Quiero estos libros, I want these books. Quiero à ©stos, I want these ones. Quiero esta camisa, I want this shirt. Quiero à ©sta, I want this one. Quiero estas camisas, I want these shirts. Quiero à ©stas, I want these ones.Quiero ese libro, I want that book. Quiero à ©se, I want that one. Quiero esos libros, I want those books. Quiero à ©sos, I want those ones. Quiero esa camisa, I want that shirt. Quiero à ©sa, I want that one. Quiero esas camisas, I want those shirts. Quiero à ©sas, I want those ones.Quiero aquel libro, I want that book over there. Quiero aquà ©l, I want that one over there. Quiero aquellos libros, I want those books over there. Quiero aquà ©llos, I want those ones over there. Quiero aquellas camisas, I want those shirts over there. Quiero aquà ©llas, I want those ones over there. There are also neuter variations of these pronouns (eso, esto, and aquello), and they are not accented because there are no corresponding neuter adjective forms. Interrogatives: A number of words are accented when they are used in a question (including an indirect question) or exclamation, but they arent otherwise accented. Such words are listed below:  ¿Adà ³nde? Where (to)? ¿Adà ³nde vas? Where are you going? ¿Cà ³mo? How? ¿Cà ³mo està ¡s? How are you? ¿Cuà ¡l?  ¿Cuà ¡les? Which one? Which ones? ¿Cuà ¡l es mà ¡s caro? Which one is more expensive? ¿Cuà ¡ndo? When?  ¿Cuà ¡ndo sales? When are you leaving? ¿Cuà ¡nto?  ¿Cuà ¡nta?  ¿Cuà ¡ntos?  ¿Cuà ¡ntas? How much? How many?  ¿Cuà ¡ntos pesos cuesta el libro? How many pesos does the book cost? ¿Dà ³nde? Where?  ¿De dà ³nde es usted? Where are you from? ¿Por quà ©? Why?  ¿Por quà © vas? Why are you going? ¿Quà ©? What? Which?  ¿Quà © libro prefieres? What book do you prefer? ¿Quià ©n?  ¿Quienes? Who? Whom?  ¿Quià ©nes quieren mi libro? Who wants my book? Diereses: The dieresis (or umlaut) is used above the u when the u is sounded in the combinations of gà ¼i or gà ¼e. Without the umlaut, known as la dià ©resis or la crema in Spanish, the u would be silent, serving only to indicate that the g is pronounced as a hard g rather than similar to the j. (For example, guey with no umlaut would sound something like gay.) Among the words with umlauts are vergà ¼enza, shame; cigà ¼eà ±a, stork or crank; pingà ¼ino, penguin; and agà ¼ero, prediction.

Germany as a Victim - 1451 Words

Germany as a Victim On the 16th June the German government, lead by Count Brockdorff-Rantzau, were presented with the Treaty of Versailles. They were originally given 14, and then 21 days, to agree to it. The treaty, which included some 440 Articles, was not as vindictive as Clemenceau had wanted nor as moderate as Lloyd George would have wished. It certainly fell far short of the conciliatory features of Wilsons fourteen point proposals. (Evans and Jenkins) However, in order to decipher whether the end results were destructive to Germany or not, it is necessary to asses not only the main points of the treaty (including military provisions, territory, financial provisions, war guilt and the†¦show more content†¦The most obvious term was the return of Alsace-Lorraine to France. Schleswig was also returned to Denmark after it had been annexed by Bismark. Also Eupen and Malmedy were to go to Belgium. 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IT Risk Management Australia- Myassignmenthelp.com

Questions: 1. For this question you are required to make at least two (2) forum postings, arguing either for or against the quantiative method of risk assessment. You will be assessed on what you contribute to the debate in terms of quality not quantity (though your posting should at a minimum be a few sentences long). You may either create new thread or reply to a previous posting. All new threads should contain the subject line Quantitative Debate 2. Study Exhibits 61.1 and 61.2 from Reading 3, and answer the following questions: (a) Explain in your own words what is meant by the terms Sweet Spot and Discretionary Area (see Exhibit 61.1) (b) Explain the significance of a security decision that is located to the right of the Sweet Spot but outside the Discretionary Area (see Exhibit 61.1). (c) Explain the significance of a security decision that is located to the left of the Sweet Spot but still inside the Discretionary Area (see Exhibit 61.1). (d) Explain why you think the Defined Highest Acceptable Risk is located on the Sweet Spot, but the Defined Lowest Acceptable Risk is located to the right of the Sweet Spot (see Exhibit 61.2).3. In Reading 7 for this subject, Ozier states that The [ALE] algorithm cannot distinguish effectively between low frequency/high-impact threats (such as fire) and high-frequency/low impact threats (such as misuse of resources). Explain why this is the case. Give an appropriate example to illustrate your explanation. 4. (Note: Make sure you show ALL your working for this question) The following threat statistics have been gathered by a risk manager. Based on these, calculate the ALE for each threat. (Note: Make sure you show ALL your working for this question) Using the figures you calculated above, determine the relative ROSI (return on security investment) for each of the same threats with the following controls in place. Remember that a single control may affect more than one threat, and you need to take this into account when calculating the ROSI. Based on your calculations, which controls should be purchased? Consider the data in the two tables that appear in questions4 and5 above. Sometimes a control may affect thecost per incidentand sometimes theoccurrence frequency, and sometimes both. Why is this the case? Illustrate your answer with an example drawn from the data provided. 7.The year is 1999 and you are the risk manager for a large financial institution. You apply the Jacobsons Window model (Reading 11) to determine your companys preferred response to the impending Y2K bug. According to the model, should you accept, mitigate, or transfer the Y2K risk? Why? Do you agree with the models recommendations? Why or why not? 8.(Note: Make sure you show ALL your working for this question) You want to persuade management to invest in an automated patching system. You estimate the costs and benefits over the next five years as follows: Benefits: Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 $2,000 $2,500 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 Costs: Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 $3000 $2000 $750 $250 $250 Calcula te the Net Present Value (NPV) for this investment. Assuming that management has set the Required Rate of Return at 10%, should the investment be made? Why or why not 9.There are a number of qualitative risk assessment models that are available for use, such as FRAAP, OCTAVE, OWASP and CRAMM.Choose one of these models and briefly describe how risk assessment is conducted under this model. Describe an example situation where you could use thisselected model. Giveyour assessment of the validity, or otherwise,of this risk assessment model. Answers: Answer 1 Post 1: for the motion Quantitative risk assessment is the most acclaimed risk assessment method across the globe. The main reason for this is that it provides a concreted result through considering four major aspects of the risk rising. Over the couple of facts and features it has been seen that the major sources of risk are from the individual level, public risk, environmental risk and the employee risk. In any country the it has a regulatory framework that guides the risk management in detailed level. The risk assessment through the quantitative calculation provides a better snapshot about the risk along with the regulatory framework. On the other hand, the quantification of the risk enables the organization and the associated departments to handle the risk according to its calculated magnitude. Therefore, the quantitative risk assessment helps in taking the prompt and the required action to the categorized risks (Dnv.com, 2015). This also helps the companies to develop a business solution model based o n the identified and the assed risks The main advantage of the quantitative risk management is that it allows demonstrating the risks in accordance with its severity value. This severity value helps the legislative departments to take the required actions to control the risk for the bigger betterment of the society. Most of the companies puts stress on the quantitative risk assessment because it helps the company to identify the potential risk and its link with the indentified four aspects. The other reason for using the quantitative risk assessment is that all global risk identification and measure manuals work through the quantified values rather than qualitative instructions (Charitoudi, 2013). Post 2: For the motion The quantitative risk assessment helps in managing a risk through identifying five key areas. These key areas are identification of the high-risk areas, increment of client confidence, measuring the probability of success, mitigation planning and delivering accuracy in the daily level risk management. According to Sims (2012) through the quantitative process the identification of the high risk occurrence areas are very much easy than the descriptive process. The major disadvantage of the descriptive process is that it provides a large amount of data that takes a long time to manage. The other most advantageous aspect of the quantitative risk management is that it allows increasing the client confidence through showing the level of occurrence and its impact on the related factors. The quantitative demarcation helps the clients to identify and to assess the risks. The major advantage of this method is that it helps in managing the day-to-day risk management though more efficient manner . Through the descriptive risk-assessment provides a detailed level of information about the risk and its probable impact however, this mechanism is not very much preferable for maintaining the day-to-day risk management. The risk mitigation is a major issue for any organization. The quantitative assessment of the identified risks helps to take the required action to mitigate the risks more quickly than the qualitative way. The main reason for preferring the quantitative analysis for the mitigation is that it allows taking more proactive action for the identified risks according to its probable probability. Therefore, considering these aspects it is very highly recommended that for the assessment of risks it is better to follow the quantitative way than the qualitative way (Abouzakhar, 2014). Answer 2 Answers of the sub questions Sweet spot and discretionary area Every organization tries to minimise the risk and the occurrence of the risks in the future times. To achieve a risk free working environment companies needs to develop a security system within the organization. However, to implement a security system is very much costly and it takes a long time for the implementation. Therefore, to develop and implement a security system within the organizational system it incurs both the one time investment and the recurring investments (However, it has been observed through analyzing some of the academic resources that the effectiveness of the planned security system is directly proportionate with the system development and implementation cost. Therefore, if we develop a graph with the two lines one will define the risk and the other will define the cost. In this graph, the sweet spot will be that area where the risk and the cost line intercepts together ( On the other hand, there remain some of the associated costs that need to be incurred to maintain the risk. Therefore, it can be said that within organizations there remain some of the risk factors that cannot be diminished. More specifically, it can be said that the minimum risk and the minimum cost are the two factors that cannot be diminished. The region in between the minimum cost and the minimum risk defines the discretionary area ( Explanation on the Significance of a security decision that is located to the right of the Sweet Spot but outside the Discretionary Area The security decisions that remains in the right of the sweet spot but outside the discretionary area defines that the security enhancement requires big amount of fixed expenses. Moreover, this expense has lower impact on the risk. The main reason behind this is that the level of risk always tends in defining the lowest level. According to Sliwinski (2014the nature of the risk is that it always tends towards the lowest level in this scenario, the higher cost investment always has the lower impact on the risk. Therefore, the investment on the risk that resides within the right of the sweet spot but outside the discretionary area will not provide good return to the organization (Palasinski Grieve,2014). Explanation on the significance of a security decision that is located to the left of the Sweet Spot but still inside the Discretionary Area The security decision that is located in the left of the sweet sop but still inside the discretionary area defines that in the security enhancement requires some amount of investment that has equal proportional impact on the risk reduction issue (Woo Kim, 2014). The main reason behind this is that with the increment of the security measure the risk becomes low. Therefore, it can be said that the growing investment in managing the risk directly reduce the magnitude of the risk. Therefore, the investment on any risk that lies within the section of left of the sweet spot and within the discretionary areas will pay positively for the company thorough minimizing risks with the growing investments (Kizza, 2014). Discussion on the Defined Highest Acceptable Risk and Defined Lowest Acceptable Risk According to Palasinski Grieve (2014) the acceptability of the risk becomes very much acceptable only when the risk becomes feasible for any organization. In the figure 1, it has been observed that the sweet spot is where the risk and the investment intercept together. The interception means that the risk and the investment became the feasible one. In this point, the investment becomes feasible in accordance with the potential risk. Through this, it can be said that the highest acceptable risk is located on the Sweet point. On the other hand, the lowest acceptable risk means such kind of risk that cannot be met because of the higher investment cost involvement. According to Vacca (2014) when the management of risk requires higher investment in accordance with the magnitude of the risk then that risk becomes low acceptable risk. In the right side of the sweet spot, the investment grows more rapidly and the magnitude of the risk increases. Therefore, it becomes very tough to bring a balance in between the investment and the magnitude of the risk. Therefore, it can be said that the lower acceptable risk resides right side of the sweet spot. Answer 3 It can be presented that the algorithm failed in making distinction among the low frequency and high impact threats and high frequency and low impact threats. For instance, the fire can be low frequency high impact threat and high frequency low impact threat can be wrong use of available resources. Therefore, ALE was not successful in making right differences (Woo Kim, 2014). On the other hand, if a firm majorly focuses on analysing risk that can lead to loss then Annualized Loss Expectancy (ALE) can be computed. ALE = Exposure Factor Asset Value The above outlined formula can be helpful in knowing the loss exposure. However, only single loss exposure can be estimated by evaluating the formula. Therefore, the risk can be effectively determined, which can be considered as single dimension. Thus, it can be seen that it may fail in recognizing the frequency and impact. On the other hand, if low frequency and high impact threat is considered then the effect of the result may correspond with the outcome shown by the high frequency and low impact threat. Thus, it can be concluded that the ALE algorithm approach can be considered as main issue that may be accountable in providing a clear scenario and making distinction between the high frequency and low impact threat and low frequency and high impact threat. The failure in distinction may do not allow providing a clear picture and results (Rice AlMajali, 2014). Answer 4 The largest threat that can be understood from the table is Fire, which involves high amount of cost for each incident. The single loss expectancy caused due to fire is valued to 500000. Therefore, fire causes lot of damages than any other threats. Apart from that, the flood is second most influential threat that cause loss of 300000 but the estimated frequency of flood threat is very low than the others. The threat that most affect the system is software piracy as the estimated occurrence of software piracy is very high at 52 which show that it can lead to potential loss that can hamper all the system and can increase the level of malicious threat. The other threat that is computer virus leads to a loss of 2000, which is more than software piracy and it, occurs 12 times in one month approximately. Therefore, annualized loss expectancy of computer virus is valued at 24000, which are second highest after software piracy. The computer virus can break down the system and can erase all t he necessary documents. On the other hand, hacker theft occurs 4 times in every three months that attacks and hacks the important information of the person and use for themselves or distribute unethically. It causes loss of approx 3500 in three months. Therefore, it can be concluded that software piracy threat occurs maximum times than any other threats. From the above table, it can be analysed that in order to control the software piracy that happens once in 4 months, anti-piracy protection hardware has been build so that software cannot be supplied to third parties without proper authorisation. The cost that has to be bear is valued at $15000 per annum. On the other hand, for mitigating the effect of computer virus or worm, the antivirus has been developed so that computer system can be kept clean from virus and malicious items. The return on security investment for computer virus is 62%, which is more than the average. In order to tackle information system threat, IDS system has been designed so that hackers can be restricted in entering to any system. The return is quite from the investment made in IDS. On the other side, in order to protect the employee from information threat, Access Control has been improved so that only authorised person can only access the information and unauthorised person should not be allowed. As the est imated frequency of information theft of employee occurrence is low therefore, the return is not that good. Apart from that, in order to remain protective from the denial of service attack, Firewall has been designed so that it can be hard for the illegal person to break the wall and enter into the system. As it occurs once in 10 years so that only 15000 has been invested for it but it delivers had better return. Therefore, it can be analyzed from overall table is that maximum return is gained from the insurance and IDS. Therefore, for battling flood and information hacking, insurance and IDS can be increased. Answer 6: If question 4 and question 5 tables are taken in account then it can be know that cost per incident and occurrence frequency modifies considering control basis. On the other hand, the control factor impacts the cost per incident. The situation can be completely understood by an example so that impact-relating control in relation to occurrence frequency and incident can be known. In order to tackle computer worms, incident cost was $2000 and it occurred once in a month. Therefore, when the control antivirus was incorporated, it costs was $1300 and it occurred once in 5 month. Thus, it can be analysed that the reason for such difference is the different antivirus types and licensing policy copyright. Answer 7: Y2K problem is commonly known as the year 2000 problem or the Millennium bug. The computer programmings that were developed at the starting of the 1990 were designed in such a ways that it recognized the year in terms of two digits. The main problem that rose in 1999 is a risk of misinterpretation in the calculation could happen (Haimes, 2002). Most of the computer services providing firms have suspected that a probable mismatch could happen at the start of the year 2000. During that time, the most of the financial organizations have faced the issue about how to respond to this miscalculation risk. In 1999, I was a risk management manager in a large financial company and it was my duty to provide a response way to handle this issue in 1999. Therefore, to identify the potential of risk and to identify the way to handle the risk I have taken the help of the Jacobsons window model. According to the Jacobsons window model the response to the risk is determined by the occurrences and the consequences. According to t et al. (2010) the concentration over the risks that have low occurrences and the low consequences needs to be handled by the company itself. The main reason behind this was that over the time it has been observed that these kinds of risks have the lower potentials to create any bigger damage for the companies. On the other hand, the risks that have the higher occurrence chances and the higher consequences needs to be handled through transferring the risk to some other organizations that have the capacity and the capability to handle the risk. Considering the possible severity and the consequences of the Y2K problem, it resides in the high occurrence and high consequence quadrant. However, according to some of the resources the high occurrence and the high consequences risks often do not happens. However, through considering the severity of the impact I have decided to keep the Y2K issue in the mentioned quadrant. Y2K is a very serious problem for the financial service providing companies. If this issue rises in the starting of the year 2000 then the company and all of its customers will be affected badly. Moreover, a large and uncontrolled disparity will happen within the financial calculation of the company. Therefore, the company should respond with immediate effect. To handle this risk the company should transfer the risk to some other IT companies. The main reason for doing this is that the transfer of risk to other organization will provide a scope of recovering the loss amount from the some of the agreed sources if the Y2K problem actually rises and the organization fails to respond to it. On the issue about the agreement of the model, I do not agree on the view that the higher occurrences and higher consequences does not happens. However, there are some of the issues happens like the Y2K problem that keeping the severity of the issue it should be considered in the high occurrence and high consequences quadrant until the issue is completely resolved (Voeller, 2014). Recommendation According to the Net Present Valuation, the calculated value is positive which suggests that investing in the project can be profitable. Therefore, the management can take up the decision to invest in the project. On the other hand, in first year the management can register a certain decline due to meeting the various costs and after second year the management can register growth that will gradually increase over the years. Therefore, after five-year period the management can ensure better return that can help in providing better system and better engagement of investors. Apart from that, the management may require to continuously upgrade their system so that expected profit can be acquired after the set period and risk of loss can be minimized. Therefore, it can be effective and profitable for the company to make investment and earn better income. Answer 9: OCTAVE Model How risk assessment model works According to Violino (2014) octave is the strongest and the most formalised qualitative risk management model. CERT initially developed this model. According to Rice AlMajali (2014) the strongest point of the model is that it considers hardware, systems, information and the peoples as the assets of the company. The main purpose for the development of this method was to conduct the risk analysis of a moderate size organization having almost strength of 300. This model has three other variants and the purposes of those three variants are different from the others. OCTAVE Allegro is the most recent development on the OCTAVE model has reduced the processing steps from eight to four. Those steps are: Development of the risk management criteria consisting with the company mission, objectives, goals and critical success factors Creation of profile for each of the assets through developing specific boundaries for the identification of the potential risk Identification of the risk in accordance with the context and information Initiation of the mitigation approaches (org, 2014). Example The best example can be cited is the cyber attack on the J.P. Morgan. The cyber attack on the company has almost stolen 76000 customer data from the database. This attack has very critically affected the reputation of the company along with the financial loss (Snyder, 2014). This problem is best analysed through the OCTIVE allegro because this system provides a holistic analysis on the all the possible risk rising elements that can hamper the reputation of the company and could create a major financial loss to the company. Therefore, the application and the analysis of the threat through this model will be very much valid in this case. References Abouzakhar, N. (2014). Cyber security for industrial control and automation systems. Ind Eng Manage, 03(05). doi:10.4172/2169-0316.s1.003 Boyson, S. (2014). Cyber supply chain risk management: Revolutionizing the strategic control of critical IT systems. Technovation, 34(7), 342-353. doi:10.1016/j.technovation.2014.02.001 Cert.org,. (2014). OCTAVE | Cyber Risk and Resilience Management | The CERT Division. Retrieved 8 January 2015, from https://www.cert.org/resilience/products-services/octave/ Charitoudi, K. (2013). A Socio-Technical Approach to Cyber Risk Management and Impact Assessment. 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